College football’s opening week wraps up tonight with a Monday night showcase at Doak Campbell Stadium, where SMU visits Florida State at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. It’s the last game of a jam-packed opening slate, and it’s also one of the more bettable spots of the week, with a genuine gap between what the number says and what the underlying numbers suggest.
The spread: SMU is traveling as a road favorite, currently priced between -2.5 and -3 depending on the book. That’s a notable vote of confidence for a team giving up the raw talent edge on the road, and it’s backed by a real production gap — SMU returns roughly 62% of its output from a season that ranked 23rd nationally, while Florida State is starting over behind a new starting quarterback after finishing 5-7 last year. Florida State also didn’t inspire much confidence in its opener, needing most of four quarters to shake off a heavy underdog. Lay the points and back SMU on the road.
The total: Set at 53.5, but there’s a lean toward the under. Florida State’s defense allowed the 113th-most efficient red-zone conversion rate in the country last season, which sounds like a green light for scoring — except SMU’s own red-zone offense, while efficient (18th nationally), isn’t the explosive, chunk-play attack that piles up points against a defense playing from ahead. Expect a game that’s more about field position and turnovers than a shootout. Lean under.
The value play: For anyone looking for a longer-priced angle rather than laying points, Florida State’s moneyline has drawn some support from bettors betting on the home dog to keep it close and simply win outright — a live if unlikely outcome given the Seminoles’ turnover issues last season (19 giveaways, 33rd-most nationally) against a SMU defense that forced the fifth-most takeaways in the country.
Bottom line: SMU -2.5 to -3, under 53.5, and Florida State’s moneyline as the contrarian long shot if you want to spread a small stake across the board. As always, shop the number across multiple sportsbooks before kickoff — with a line this tight, half a point can be the difference between a win and a push.
