Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court declared Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva re-elected on Oct. 25 with 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%. The same day, under Provisional Measure 1,394, all 85 of Brazil’s federal betting licenses expired. They had cost R$30 million each, about R$2.55 billion (~$508 million) in total, and no refunds are due.
Most coverage will treat these as two separate stories. I don’t think they are. The industry’s best path back was the Bolsonaro compromise: ban online casino, restore sports betting. That path depended on Bolsonaro winning, and he didn’t.
Key Takeaways
- Result: Lula 51.79%, Bolsonaro 48.21%. No candidate had previously come from behind in a Brazilian presidential run-off.
- Prediction markets got it wrong: Polymarket, which is blocked in Brazil, priced Lula as low as 17.5% on election day.
- Licenses gone: All 85 expired on Oct. 25, with no refund of the R$2.55B in fees.
- Lula’s position: “Betting won’t come back anymore. Whoever wants to make money should go to work.”
- Jobs: More than 3,500 betting workers (23% of the sector) have been dismissed, according to the ANJL.
- What’s left: Congress (deadline Nov. 23) and Justice Luiz Fux at the Supreme Court.
Lula’s Comeback in Numbers
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Lula, run-off (Oct. 25) | 51.79% |
| Bolsonaro, run-off | 48.21% |
| First round (Oct. 4) | Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16% |
| Lula’s lowest price on Polymarket, election day | 17.5% |
| Licenses expired | 85 |
| Fees not refunded | R$2.55B (~$508M) |
| Betting workers dismissed (as of Oct. 7) | 3,500+ (23% of workforce) |
| Workers on collective leave | 4,167 |
| Projected dismissals within 90 days | 5,600 |
“Betting Won’t Come Back”
Lula didn’t wait for the result to say where he stood. In a YouTube livestream on Oct. 22 with federal deputy André Janones and influencer Nath Finanças, he was clear.
“I can tell you, Nath: betting won’t come back anymore. Whoever wants to make money should go to work,” Lula said, according to Poder360. Talking about a meeting with young people in debt from betting, he added: “We have to put an end to this plague, because if we don’t, betting will put an end to the Brazilian people.”
That leaves no room for the managed reopening the industry had hoped for. Lula’s own government licensed this market in January 2025, and he is now committed to ending it.
The Prediction-Market Miss
There’s a side story here for the US market. Polymarket, which Brazil blocks, had Lula as low as 17.5% while votes were being counted. Kalshi and Polymarket had both priced Bolsonaro at around 80% in the days before.
No candidate had ever come from behind to win a Brazilian presidential run-off. The prediction markets assumed that would hold, and it didn’t. That will come up the next time a platform describes itself as a “truth machine” in court.
Why Lula’s Win Matters for the Industry
Before the run-off, the most promising route was political. Of the 97 congressional amendments filed by the Oct. 13 deadline, the largest group would ban online casino and slots but restore sports betting. That was Bolsonaro’s stated position. His Liberal Party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, its biggest bloc since 1990, and he had called Lula’s ban “populist, hypocritical and politically motivated.”
| Scenario | Before Oct. 25 | After Oct. 25 |
|---|---|---|
| Bolsonaro wins, Congress reopens sports betting | Plausible | Gone |
| Lula wins, Congress amends anyway | Possible | Only realistic path |
| Supreme Court suspends the ban | Possible after run-off | Still pending |
| Ban stays in full | Possible | Lula’s stated aim |
Congress still matters. The PL is still the largest bloc, and most amendments call for regulation rather than prohibition. But any law Congress passes now goes to a president who has said he wants betting gone. A presidential veto is a much bigger obstacle than a committee vote.
The Courts: Fux Is Next
Justice Luiz Fux, who is handling challenges from industry groups, broadcasters and football clubs, had signalled he would rule only after the run-off. That time has now come.
The broadcasters’ association Abert has asked him to suspend the measure, arguing its members are direct targets of the ad ban and that “the damage is already underway.” Its filing puts the industry’s argument this way:
“The state that created the market, charged for entry into it, and supervised its operation undid, in 30 days and by unilateral act, the legal positions it had itself established.”
The government’s lawyers have asked Fux to keep the ban and have separately told the court that the 2023 betting laws are unconstitutional.
What Happens Next
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Nov. 3 | Scheduled Supreme Court public hearing on ban challenges (reported) |
| Nov. 9 | The measure begins blocking Congress’s agenda |
| Nov. 23 | The measure expires unless Congress votes or extends it |
| +60 days | Possible one-time extension (recess pauses the clock) |
| TBD | Fux ruling on suspension |
The joint committee that should review the measure still hasn’t formally met.
What I’m Watching
The biggest effect of the ban is the shift to unlicensed sites. Lawmaker Bebeto’s amendment estimated that about 44% of Brazilian betting was already offshore before the ban. Licensed operators are gone, 3,500 people have lost their jobs, and the government has lost tax revenue it had already budgeted. Bettors haven’t stopped. They’ve moved to sites with no Brazilian license, no Pix controls and no self-exclusion.
Lula ran on ending what he called a plague and won. The industry now needs Fux or Congress to override a president who has just won re-election on this issue. I’d put the odds well below where they were a week ago.
FAQ: Brazil Betting After the Election
Did Lula win Brazil’s 2026 election?
Yes. Lula won the Oct. 25 run-off with 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, according to the Superior Electoral Court.
Are Brazilian betting licenses still valid?
No. All 85 federal licenses expired on Oct. 25 under Provisional Measure 1,394, with no refund of the R$30 million fee each operator paid.
Will online betting return to Brazil?
Lula says no. It could still return if Justice Fux suspends the ban or Congress lets the measure lapse or amends it, but Lula could veto new legislation.
When does Congress have to vote on the betting ban?
The measure starts blocking the congressional agenda on Nov. 9 and expires on Nov. 23 unless extended once for 60 days.
