Kalshi traded $3.9 billion in notional volume on Saturday, Oct. 11, according to TickerTracker data, a single-day record for the company. Across the two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket set consecutive daily records the previous weekend totaling $8.56 billion, and their combined weekly volume reached a record $22.2 billion, according to Dune Analytics data compiled by Bloomberg.
Most coverage will lead with the record. I’m more interested in what made it up. More than 70% of Kalshi’s Saturday volume came from parlays and combination bets. That works out to roughly $2.7 billion in multi-leg bets in one day, on a platform that tells federal courts it is a commodities exchange.
Key Takeaways
- Record day: Kalshi traded $3.9B in notional volume on Saturday, Oct. 11, with parlays and combos above 70% of it (TickerTracker).
- Record week: Kalshi and Polymarket combined for $22.2B in a week, including an $8.56B two-day weekend (Dune Analytics via Bloomberg).
- Sports dominate: More than 80% of Kalshi’s September volume came from sports.
- Combos are mostly sports: Combos made up 65% of Kalshi’s weekly volume and 53% of Polymarket’s US volume. Kalshi says at least 96% of its combos are sports-related.
- Rapid growth: On big football days, Kalshi averages about $1.36B in combo volume (Piper Sandler), compared with about $900M across the entire previous NFL regular season.
- Wider pushback: At least 44 states argue that sports contracts are illegal gambling, and the NFL has joined the push for Supreme Court review.
The Numbers Behind Kalshi’s NFL Surge
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi notional volume, Sat. Oct. 11 | $3.9B | TickerTracker |
| Share from parlays/combos (Saturday) | 70%+ (~$2.7B) | TickerTracker |
| Kalshi + Polymarket, two-day weekend | $8.56B | Dune Analytics / Bloomberg |
| Kalshi + Polymarket, weekly record | $22.2B | Dune Analytics / Bloomberg |
| Kalshi volume from sports, September | 80%+ | Bloomberg |
| Combo share of weekly volume | Kalshi 65%, Polymarket US 53% | Bloomberg |
| Kalshi combos that are sports-related | At least 96% | Kalshi |
| Kalshi combo volume, average big-football day | ~$1.36B | Piper Sandler |
| Kalshi combo volume, entire 2025 NFL regular season | ~$900M | Piper Sandler |
| Kalshi valuation (latest round) | ~$40B | Bloomberg |
A caveat on the headline number: notional volume is not the same as sportsbook handle. Exchange volume counts both sides of a trade and the full contract value, so $3.9 billion isn’t directly comparable to what DraftKings or FanDuel report. The share figures are what matter here, and they show the same thing whichever volume measure you use.
Kalshi’s Revenue Now Looks Like a Sportsbook’s
Parlays have been the main profit driver for US sportsbooks for the past few years. They have low hit rates and high hold, and retail customers love them. Kalshi now gets most of its weekend volume from the same product.
“It’s the same playbook we saw five years ago with online betting apps,” Citizens analyst Jordan Bender told Bloomberg. “It looks no different.”
Kalshi disagrees with that comparison. “Sports trading on regulated prediction markets offer a fairer choice to consumers, with no ‘house’ that restricts winners and hooks people the more they lose,” said Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications.
The “no house” argument is Kalshi’s strongest point, and it’s partly true. Kalshi doesn’t book bets against customers or limit sharp accounts the way sportsbooks do. But someone still takes the other side of a combo. FanDuel supplies much of that liquidity as a market maker, and last week’s Bloomberg analysis showed retail longshot money losing 15% by settlement on Kalshi before fees of up to 7%. Customers face a counterparty instead of a house, and the result for them looks much the same.
Why Sportsbooks Are Angry
The underlying issue is regulatory arbitrage. Because Kalshi is classified federally as an exchange, it pays none of the state gambling taxes sportsbooks pay, including New York’s 51% levy. It also isn’t subject to the same age and location limits.
“In Texas or California, where gambling is not allowed, prediction markets have a leg up,” Seton Hall law professor Ilya Beylin told Bloomberg.
The table below shows the gap:
| Licensed sportsbook (e.g., NY) | Kalshi / Polymarket US | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulator | State gaming commission | CFTC |
| State gaming tax | Up to 51% (New York) | None |
| Minimum age | 21 in most states | 18 |
| Available in Texas, California | No | Yes |
| Parlays | Yes | Yes (“combos”) |
| Responsible-gaming mandates | State-specific | Voluntary / platform-set |
That explains why DraftKings and FanDuel have launched their own prediction-market products. They have little choice, because it’s the only way to reach customers in states where their sportsbooks can’t operate. For now, they still trail Kalshi and Polymarket in volume.
The Marketing Has Also Moved Mainstream
Prediction markets are now marketing like sportsbooks. Novig opened the NFL season with a campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney, who also took an equity stake. Polymarket launched a multimillion-dollar push with LeBron James, Eli Manning and Richard Sherman. Combined with parlays as the main product and football as the main event, the platforms are now hard to tell apart from DraftKings, apart from how they’re regulated.
The Supreme Court Question
This is the part I keep coming back to. The more Kalshi’s volume looks like sportsbook handle, the harder its legal position becomes.
- At least 44 states, including New York, Arizona and Connecticut, argue sports contracts are illegal gambling under state law.
- The NFL has asked the Supreme Court to step in on the states’ side, warning that the CFTC’s “laissez-faire” approach leaves room for insider trading, manipulation and threats to game integrity.
- Federal appeals courts are split. The Sixth Circuit (Sept. 25) and Ninth Circuit sided with the states, while the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi.
- In Congress, Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis have asked CFTC Chairman Michael Selig for supervision records, alleging the regulator has been captured by the industries it oversees. They have also raised conflict-of-interest questions: Donald Trump Jr. advises Kalshi, and his venture firm is leading a Polymarket funding round.
The stakes are very large. “If prediction markets are successful at the Supreme Court, then basically the sports betting regulatory regime as it exists could basically cease to exist,” Indiana University law professor John Holden told Bloomberg.
What I’m Watching
Every record weekend makes the volume story better for Kalshi’s IPO and the legal case worse. A company valued at about $40 billion that is considering going public needs to show investors growth. But growth that is 80% sports and 70% parlays on a Saturday is exactly what 44 attorneys general want to put in front of the Supreme Court. Kalshi is making its legal case harder in order to make its financial case.
Something has to give. Either the Supreme Court decides a $2.7 billion parlay Saturday is a commodities market, or prediction markets end up under state licensing and taxes. The second outcome would close the tax gap that drove much of this growth in the first place.
FAQ: Kalshi NFL Volume and Parlays
How much did Kalshi trade on Saturday, Oct. 11?
About $3.9 billion in notional volume, a single-day record according to TickerTracker data. More than 70% came from parlays and combination bets.
What is a combo on Kalshi?
A combo bundles several outcomes into one contract, which is the prediction-market version of a parlay. Combos made up 65% of Kalshi’s weekly volume, and at least 96% of them are sports-related, according to the company.
Why don’t prediction markets pay sports betting taxes?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are regulated by the CFTC as federal exchanges, not by state gaming commissions. They pay no state gambling taxes, while New York’s sportsbook tax is 51%.
Will the Supreme Court decide whether prediction markets are gambling?
It looks increasingly likely. Federal appeals courts have split on whether federal law preempts state gambling rules, and the NFL and a number of states are asking the Court to take the case.
